[Klaus]

http://www.prophoto-online.de/images_201..._menge.jpg

 

Thus the DSLR market is collapsing.

Mirrorless cameras are on the rise albeit not compensating the DSLR losses.

 

Lens sales are now also decreasing:

http://www.prophoto-online.de/images_201..._menge.jpg

 

albeit less so in value:

http://www.prophoto-online.de/images_201...e_wert.jpg

 

Action cams are the new black I suppose ...

http://www.prophoto-online.de/images_201..._menge.jpg

 

[davidmanze]

 Well, it's not surprising given the worlds economic state, also everyone seems to think that we have to renew our cameras every year, six or seven years ago the quality increases were very large and easy to see, now although the progress marches on, the majority of casual shooters are more than happy with what they have, that and the quality of camera phones.

   The overlap between casual and serious shooters with mirror-less and their compactness/portability is really becoming a factor now!

[Guest]

I have a slightly differnt interpretation here:

 

 Since the introduction of digital cameras the photo market has seen an enormous increase in demand because of the novality  factor (exiting new tech) and the obvious practical adavanatges of digital photography over film based photography. However, the novaility factor of digital has worn off and today's digital cameras deliver more than sufficient image quality and ease of use for the mainstream consumer. While there were adavantages from 2001 to about 2012 to ugrade yor camera every second year or so because of more pixels, faster operation or fundamentally new features (video)  there no longer is any reason to do so for most people. Especially since most consumers have discovered that  video is no more than a nice add-on for them, that requires more time and effort than they are willing to sacrifice  regardless of the capabilities of their camera (external lightning, and audio recording, good editing, powerful computer hardware, good storytelling abilities, diligent shot planning etc). Wthout those abilities and extra effort the video feature is not more useful than the one in everyone's smart-phone.

 

Thus consumers are just happy with the cameras they bought two or three years ago, because they already have everything  they need.  People still upgrading on a regular basis today, are not average consumers, but tech-addicts or advanced amateurs/professionals with very specific needs  who always need the latest  model.

 

 I would therfore predict that the DSLR sales will decrease a lot  while mirrorless will grow only little more. In the end we will have a maket share of 50/50 between DSLR and mirrorless, while the market as a whole will go down  to the 2002/2003 levels unless there are some really fundamental developments.

 

I would also disagree that mirrorless cameras will turn DSLRs into a niche market. Both systems have their  specific adavantages. Especially I do not see EVFs replacing OVFs for intense shooting, where you need to stare through the viewfinder for prolonged periods of time (i.e. sports, wildlife, professional travel and wedding photography).  While i love my mirrorless (Sony A7) for taking along on a casual stroll when photography is not the main object, I regularyl pick my DSLR (EOS 5dIII) if  I go out with a purpose to do photography. Also mirrorless become a pain to use when you need focal a length longer than 135mm. A 70-200mm on a Sony A7 is just nuts and handels like garabge can attached to a camera.

[davidmanze]

I have a slightly differnt interpretation here:

 

 Since the introduction of digital cameras the photo market has seen an enormous increase in demand because of the novality  factor (exiting new tech) and the obvious practical adavanatges of digital photography over film based photography. However, the novaility factor of digital has worn off and today's digital cameras deliver more than sufficient image quality and ease of use for the mainstream consumer. While there were adavantages from 2001 to about 2012 to ugrade yor camera every second year or so because of more pixels, faster operation or fundamentally new features (video)  there no longer is any reason to do so for most people. Especially since most consumers have discovered that  video is no more than a nice add-on for them, that requires more time and effort than they are willing to sacrifice  regardless of the capabilities of their camera (external lightning, and audio recording, good editing, powerful computer hardware, good storytelling abilities, diligent shot planning etc). Wthout those abilities and extra effort the video feature is not more useful than the one in everyone's smart-phone.

upgrading on a regular basis today, are not average consumers, but tech-addicts or advanced amateurs/professionals with very specific needs  who always need the latest  model.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sounds like a very similar interpretation to me!

[JJ_SO]

Guys, you have tooo much the traditional "cool camera" perspective.

Majority of people don't want to carry around tons of stuff. And the minority doesn't want, too, but it looks professionally

Majority of people is happy enough with a selfie on twitter - composing? Boring. Developing? Nerd-stuff. Blurred? I need a new phone.

As it's done quicker than typing "I was here and the Eiffeltower looks a bit rusty." Cameras? Smartphones are with the majority and nobody has even to think about packing a bag of lenses.

Even a Lytro - what a Nerd-stuff, you can't print it easily, mail it, post it on FB.

DSLRs will become what the medium and large format cameras once were: High tech dust collectors. Nobody really has fun reading a 500 page manual and adjusting all the creepy little topics in the menus. DSLR are on the best way to become dinosaurs.

 

So, let's saddle the Nikonosaurus rex and the Canodactylus and Pentaxodon and have as much fun as we want - the uncertain furture of the old manufacturers don't have to become our problems.

[felix]

Thanks for the links, Klaus! 

 

The value chart for the DSLR & CSC market is quite interesting, too:

http://www.prophoto-online.de/images_201...r_wert.jpg

 

Down 30% or ~250 million euros compared to 2012... pretty disastrous

[Klaus]

I tend to agree that the situation is normalizing due to market saturation.

Makes me wonder about the victims of all this.

I think we can all agree that there are too many manufacturers out there - this is not sustainable.

 

As far as the MSC/EVIL vs DSLR discussion is concerned - I'd say that the (sub-) APS-C market will go mirrorless.

APS-C (vs full format) is about size/weight and that's an uphill battle for DSLRs.

The APS-C market is also (mostly) an amateur market and very few amateurs really require the remaining DSLR value props.

The full format discussion is different. While mirrorless will move into this simply because it's a high margin - and therefore attractive - market, AF speed will be ruled by DSLRs for a while and, as mentioned by others, optical viewfinders are still preferred by some. 

If I had to guess, it'll settle with a 70/30 marketshare (MSC/DSLR) among them although I'd guess that this will take 10 years simply due to the legacy investments that will hold back many users.

 

The classic digicam market will disappear probably and will be replaced by smartphones. Not sure whether there'll be anything left here - even the action cams don't make too much sense other than for ruggedness maybe. The Panasonic CM1 is already a solution for those who want more. I suspect we'll see more like those - possibly even from Canon or Nikon.

 

An interesting question is the high-end digicam market a la Panasonic LX100 or Sony RX10. Again I'd say that these cameras are sufficient for at least 30% of the enthusiast user base although they are associated with a bit of a phantom pain regarding their non-exchangable lenses.

 

A further question is around convergence. Why isn't e.g. Pentax offering a phone with Pentax Q mount ?

[stoppingdown]

I tend to agree with JoJu, even though I don't dare to make any prediction. In the past months Canikon did some reaction, Nikon with the new 300 f/4 E and Canon with the 50MP announcement (useless for me, but not for others). It will be interesting to see whether mirrorless manufacturer will counter-react.

 

For me, after going mirrorless I've taken much more photos than before and I don't regret anything of the DSLR, which stays only for the 300mm, waiting for a replacement. Let's recall that at the moment there are no native long teles in the mirrorless world - when they come, together with AF for tracking moving objects, part of another segment of photographers - wildlife and sport - will migrate. 

 

BTW, I'm using the SEL70200G with my A6000 and it's a pleasure. 

[Klaus]

The Oympus 300mm is on the horizon. And there's the Fuji 100-400mm at some stage.

[stoppingdown]

Unfortunately the 100-400 has been postponed to 2016 and if I understand well its design has not been finalised yet - Fuji might sacrifice half a stop for some weight less. But sooner or later, long teles will come.