02-24-2015, 02:54 PM
I have a slightly differnt interpretation here:
Since the introduction of digital cameras the photo market has seen an enormous increase in demand because of the novality factor (exiting new tech) and the obvious practical adavanatges of digital photography over film based photography. However, the novaility factor of digital has worn off and today's digital cameras deliver more than sufficient image quality and ease of use for the mainstream consumer. While there were adavantages from 2001 to about 2012 to ugrade yor camera every second year or so because of more pixels, faster operation or fundamentally new features (video) there no longer is any reason to do so for most people. Especially since most consumers have discovered that video is no more than a nice add-on for them, that requires more time and effort than they are willing to sacrifice regardless of the capabilities of their camera (external lightning, and audio recording, good editing, powerful computer hardware, good storytelling abilities, diligent shot planning etc). Wthout those abilities and extra effort the video feature is not more useful than the one in everyone's smart-phone.
Thus consumers are just happy with the cameras they bought two or three years ago, because they already have everything they need. People still upgrading on a regular basis today, are not average consumers, but tech-addicts or advanced amateurs/professionals with very specific needs who always need the latest model.
I would therfore predict that the DSLR sales will decrease a lot while mirrorless will grow only little more. In the end we will have a maket share of 50/50 between DSLR and mirrorless, while the market as a whole will go down to the 2002/2003 levels unless there are some really fundamental developments.
I would also disagree that mirrorless cameras will turn DSLRs into a niche market. Both systems have their specific adavantages. Especially I do not see EVFs replacing OVFs for intense shooting, where you need to stare through the viewfinder for prolonged periods of time (i.e. sports, wildlife, professional travel and wedding photography). While i love my mirrorless (Sony A7) for taking along on a casual stroll when photography is not the main object, I regularyl pick my DSLR (EOS 5dIII) if I go out with a purpose to do photography. Also mirrorless become a pain to use when you need focal a length longer than 135mm. A 70-200mm on a Sony A7 is just nuts and handels like garabge can attached to a camera.
Since the introduction of digital cameras the photo market has seen an enormous increase in demand because of the novality factor (exiting new tech) and the obvious practical adavanatges of digital photography over film based photography. However, the novaility factor of digital has worn off and today's digital cameras deliver more than sufficient image quality and ease of use for the mainstream consumer. While there were adavantages from 2001 to about 2012 to ugrade yor camera every second year or so because of more pixels, faster operation or fundamentally new features (video) there no longer is any reason to do so for most people. Especially since most consumers have discovered that video is no more than a nice add-on for them, that requires more time and effort than they are willing to sacrifice regardless of the capabilities of their camera (external lightning, and audio recording, good editing, powerful computer hardware, good storytelling abilities, diligent shot planning etc). Wthout those abilities and extra effort the video feature is not more useful than the one in everyone's smart-phone.
Thus consumers are just happy with the cameras they bought two or three years ago, because they already have everything they need. People still upgrading on a regular basis today, are not average consumers, but tech-addicts or advanced amateurs/professionals with very specific needs who always need the latest model.
I would therfore predict that the DSLR sales will decrease a lot while mirrorless will grow only little more. In the end we will have a maket share of 50/50 between DSLR and mirrorless, while the market as a whole will go down to the 2002/2003 levels unless there are some really fundamental developments.
I would also disagree that mirrorless cameras will turn DSLRs into a niche market. Both systems have their specific adavantages. Especially I do not see EVFs replacing OVFs for intense shooting, where you need to stare through the viewfinder for prolonged periods of time (i.e. sports, wildlife, professional travel and wedding photography). While i love my mirrorless (Sony A7) for taking along on a casual stroll when photography is not the main object, I regularyl pick my DSLR (EOS 5dIII) if I go out with a purpose to do photography. Also mirrorless become a pain to use when you need focal a length longer than 135mm. A 70-200mm on a Sony A7 is just nuts and handels like garabge can attached to a camera.