I tend to agree that the situation is normalizing due to market saturation.
Makes me wonder about the victims of all this.
I think we can all agree that there are too many manufacturers out there - this is not sustainable.
As far as the MSC/EVIL vs DSLR discussion is concerned - I'd say that the (sub-) APS-C market will go mirrorless.
APS-C (vs full format) is about size/weight and that's an uphill battle for DSLRs.
The APS-C market is also (mostly) an amateur market and very few amateurs really require the remaining DSLR value props.
The full format discussion is different. While mirrorless will move into this simply because it's a high margin - and therefore attractive - market, AF speed will be ruled by DSLRs for a while and, as mentioned by others, optical viewfinders are still preferred by some.
If I had to guess, it'll settle with a 70/30 marketshare (MSC/DSLR) among them although I'd guess that this will take 10 years simply due to the legacy investments that will hold back many users.
The classic digicam market will disappear probably and will be replaced by smartphones. Not sure whether there'll be anything left here - even the action cams don't make too much sense other than for ruggedness maybe. The Panasonic CM1 is already a solution for those who want more. I suspect we'll see more like those - possibly even from Canon or Nikon.
An interesting question is the high-end digicam market a la Panasonic LX100 or Sony RX10. Again I'd say that these cameras are sufficient for at least 30% of the enthusiast user base although they are associated with a bit of a phantom pain regarding their non-exchangable lenses.
A further question is around convergence. Why isn't e.g. Pentax offering a phone with Pentax Q mount ?
Makes me wonder about the victims of all this.
I think we can all agree that there are too many manufacturers out there - this is not sustainable.
As far as the MSC/EVIL vs DSLR discussion is concerned - I'd say that the (sub-) APS-C market will go mirrorless.
APS-C (vs full format) is about size/weight and that's an uphill battle for DSLRs.
The APS-C market is also (mostly) an amateur market and very few amateurs really require the remaining DSLR value props.
The full format discussion is different. While mirrorless will move into this simply because it's a high margin - and therefore attractive - market, AF speed will be ruled by DSLRs for a while and, as mentioned by others, optical viewfinders are still preferred by some.
If I had to guess, it'll settle with a 70/30 marketshare (MSC/DSLR) among them although I'd guess that this will take 10 years simply due to the legacy investments that will hold back many users.
The classic digicam market will disappear probably and will be replaced by smartphones. Not sure whether there'll be anything left here - even the action cams don't make too much sense other than for ruggedness maybe. The Panasonic CM1 is already a solution for those who want more. I suspect we'll see more like those - possibly even from Canon or Nikon.
An interesting question is the high-end digicam market a la Panasonic LX100 or Sony RX10. Again I'd say that these cameras are sufficient for at least 30% of the enthusiast user base although they are associated with a bit of a phantom pain regarding their non-exchangable lenses.
A further question is around convergence. Why isn't e.g. Pentax offering a phone with Pentax Q mount ?