[popo]

4. Talking about misery - Canons as well Nikons profits are shrinking faster than ever. How long does it take until they turn belly up? "And all that in just a few years?"
5. The future is mirrorless.

I can't find the articles again, but they were probably somewhere on Thom Hogan's sites. At least for 2014, while DSLRs were still in decline, Canon by themselves were bigger than the entire mirrorless market.

To look forward a bit more, I just tried to compare the CIPA shipment figures which are available for up to 1st half 2015.

CIPA have only broken out mirrorless data starting 2012, giving both units and yen value. Given most camera players are Japanese companies I don't think it unreasonable to compare them. It is easier to list who isn't part, of which the only significant players are Samsung and Leica.

So we only have 3 full years of data to compare, 2012 through 2014, and 1st half 2015. To extrapolate what full year 2015 might be, we can't just double it as there is traditionally seasonal variations. To make an estimate of this impact, I split 2014 into two halves, and saw the 2nd half was greater than the 1st by roughly 15% for SLR units, 20% mirrorless units, 22% SLR value, 26% mirrorless value. I will use these scaling values for 2H 2015, and add it to actual 1H 2015 to give a 2015 predicted year to compare to 2014 and earlier.

In terms of units, year on year, DSLRs have been dropping 15% into 2013, 24% into 2013, and 5% predicted into 2015. So while 2014 was particularly deep things may be flattening out. Mirrorless has been flatter with a 16% drop into 2013, and no further change into 2014 and 2015 predicted.

Value comparisons are a bit different. DSLRs saw a 11 and 16% drop into 2013 and 2014, with predicted 3% increase in 2015. Mirrorless is better off here, with a 3% drop into 2013, 13% gain in 2014, and perdicted 1% gain in 2015.

Since we have value and units, we can work out the average value per unit. DSLRs hold an upper hand here. being 22% higher in 2012, 9% in 2013, 6% in 2014 and predicted up again to 13% in 2015.

Finally, what about sales share? Mirrorless as a percentage of total interchangeable camera unit sales: 20% 2012, 19% 2013, 24% 2014, 25% predicted 2015. By value the share is on average 2% lower.

What does that show? I dunno. DSLRs may be flattening out and increasing in unit value now they're adapting to the shrinking market by not overproducing. Mirrorless are still on an upward trajectory but lagging DSLRs.

I don't see anything to change my opinion that while there will be a change to mirrorless, it will be a long slow one.