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Forums > Back > Thom Hogan comments on the Pana G3 and others
#1
Source: www.bythom.com



"Mirror or No Mirror?

May 18 (commentary). With Panasonic's introduction last week of the US$599 16mp G3 camera body, the question that's coming soon is this: D3100 or G3? (Substitute the latest low-end Rebel if you're a Canon user.) In interviews at the G3 introduction, Panasonic executives made a number of points. For example: while the interchangeable lens camera market is still expanding, traditional DSLR designs are flat in sales and Panasonic expects them to collapse by as much as 30% in the not to distant future.



In Japan, m4/3, NX, and NEX cameras are continuing to gain ground. As much as 40% of the interchangeable lens camera market there is no longer traditional DSLR in any given month. There are other pockets around the world where similar things are happening. But one comment struck me: the Asian markets prefer the slim non-finder versions such as the GF2 and NEX-5, while the American and European markets prefer viewfinder-equipped cameras, such as the GH2 and G3.



Anecdotally, I find that to be true. It's one reason why the E-P1 through E-PL2 and the GF1 and GF2 didn't get the same response in the US market as in Japan (it's not the only reason, though).



With the G3, which has a viewfinder, we're now down to really only two questions that determine DSLR versus the EVF cameras: (1) focus speed? and (2) EVF quality? The differences between a DSLR such as the D3100 and an ILC such as the G3 are getting smaller. The G3 has the GH2's very fast contrast AF system, which is good enough for most people for most situations. And the G series has always had a competent viewfinder that's brighter than some of the dark pentamirror systems in low-end DSLRs. So suddenly a metal body, 16mp, positionable LCD, interchangeable EVF camera at US$599 that's also smaller than a traditional DSLR seems fairly competitive. Of course, here in the states Panasonic would actually have to fix their distribution, sales, marketing, and support systems to sell anything ;~).



But what I started predicting a few years ago is coming true: cell phones kill compact cameras from the bottom, EVF interchangeable lens cameras marginalize compacts from the top and cannibalize DSLRs from the bottom. To compete, DSLRs need to be reinvented. Soon. Substantially."
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#2
Mix into that a new post at 4/3rumors http://www.43rumors.com/ft5-hot-new-panasonic-gf-camera-and-new-lens-coming-in-june/



A new "GF" camera in June, which they have given their highest rumour rating. The G3 didn't interest me at all as the smaller body is negated by the viewfinder bulge on the top. If this new GF camera is essentially the G3 in a GF2 like body, I'm very interested. Although faster AF and a more recent imaging system are nice, it is a tough swap for the body IS in my E-P1.



On the DSLR market share comment, by definition if you're treating interchangeable lens cameras together, a new category can only take share away from what was there before. The big question is: are like for like DSLRs sales still growing or are they now shrinking? I wonder which people are buying mirrorless systems? In addition to a DSLR? Instead of a DSLR? Instead of a compact? I think the smaller mirrorless (GF/NEX/E-P) will probably most appeal to compact upgraders. Bigger bodies (G/GH) could directly attack some DSLR sales. I'm still curious to see the rumoured smaller sensor Nikon mirrorless, as the smaller sensor should lead to smaller (equiv. FoV) lenses which would be a big plus for me.
<a class="bbc_url" href="http://snowporing.deviantart.com/">dA</a> Canon 7D2, 7D, 5D2, 600D, 450D, 300D IR modified, 1D, EF-S 10-18, 15-85, EF 35/2, 85/1.8, 135/2, 70-300L, 100-400L, MP-E65, Zeiss 2/50, Sigma 150 macro, 120-300/2.8, Samyang 8mm fisheye, Olympus E-P1, Panasonic 20/1.7, Sony HX9V, Fuji X100.
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#3
[quote name='Sammy' timestamp='1305825675' post='8621']

...

To compete, DSLRs need to be reinvented. Soon. Substantially."

[/quote]



I think what he means when saying "DSLRs" are Nikon and Canon. Sony already made a significant leap... And I think Nikon and Canon are taking it easy, they're not in a rush. Because placing an innovative camera in the market, which cannot compete with Pana and Sony, could be one of the greatest mistakes ever.



Serkan
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#4
[quote name='popo' timestamp='1305829635' post='8625']

...

I wonder which people are buying mirrorless systems? In addition to a DSLR? Instead of a DSLR? Instead of a compact?

...

[/quote]



I think people own a DSLR would hardly migrate to mirrorless systems. Therefore, my guess would be:



- people who want to buy their first interchangable lens camera

- people who own a DSLR and want to try mirrorless systems in addition



Of course the latter could end with a migration, incase one does own a very low end DSLR. And 3-4 years ago, this could only be a joke I guess...



Serkan
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#5
[quote name='PuxaVida' timestamp='1305831890' post='8628']

- people who own a DSLR and want to try mirrorless systems in addition

[/quote]



Count me in here ... and out again <img src='http://forum.photozone.de/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/wink.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='Wink' />



-- Markus
Editor
opticallimits.com

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#6
Thorn makes all kinds of wild and contradictory claims. Last year he was calling mirrorless cameras netbooks, neither here (laptops), nor there (smartphones). Today he claims they are entry-level dslr killers.



make up your mind, thorn.
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#7
[quote name='PuxaVida' timestamp='1305831890' post='8628']

I think people own a DSLR would hardly migrate to mirrorless systems. Therefore, my guess would be:



- people who want to buy their first interchangable lens camera

- people who own a DSLR and want to try mirrorless systems in addition



Of course the latter could end with a migration, incase one does own a very low end DSLR. And 3-4 years ago, this could only be a joke I guess...



Serkan

[/quote]



I think another important issue is, who wants an DSLR has one by now. The improvements these days are incremental for the needs of most people. The mirror less provide something new here.



I personally also believe, the mirrorless is what many people actually want and a DSLR is a compromise for them. I speak about those people, which come back to the shop after having bought it, claiming it was broken: "It would not show an image on the screen prior to pressing the buttton!"
enjoy
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#8
[quote name='popo' timestamp='1305829635' post='8625']I wonder which people are buying mirrorless systems? In addition to a DSLR? Instead of a DSLR? Instead of a compact?[/quote]



People like me for example. Instead of a DSLR. I still have compacts. Having enjoyed a DSLR for a couple of years I grew simply tired of carrying this weight around. I only kept my 50 mm f1.8 Nikkor - and discovered that manual focusing can be good fun. So I would say that a good number of "older" DSLR users either complement their gear with some mirrorless stuff to travel light or get rid of their entire DSLR system. Also, on my last trip to Asia my impression was that Japanese mirrorless shooters were mostly younger folks, students.
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#9
Looking at the trend of WORLD market shares for cameras with interchangeable lenses

2008: Canon 38%, Nikon 37%, Sony 17%

2010: Canon 44.5%, Nikon 29.8%, Sony 11.9%

I'll hesitate to say that mirrorless interchangeable cameras have made huge strides in popularity last year. Thom is completely off his rocker... as usual. While m43 and NEX/Axx cameras are wildly popular in Japan and probably many parts of Asia, the US and European markets appear more hesitant in embracing this new technology.



Personally, I'll love to get one to try out... but I'm also aware that any weight reduction I gain will only come from the camera body alone. Notice there isn't any f/2.8 zoom lens in the m43 and NEX/Axx line-up? Pairing up a f/2.8 zoom lens with a mirrorless camera body (that is armed with a m43 or APS-C sensor) can only lead to a poorly balanced set-up.
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#10
[quote name='thw' timestamp='1305844887' post='8656']

Personally, I'll love to get one to try out... but I'm also aware that any weight reduction I gain will only come from the camera body alone. Notice there isn't any f/2.8 zoom lens in the m43 and NEX/Axx line-up? Pairing up a f/2.8 zoom lens with a mirrorless camera body (that is armed with a m43 or APS-C sensor) can only lead to a poorly balanced set-up.

[/quote]



That's one of the reasons I think mirrorless cameras will make most sense with smaller sensors. For a given field of view range (ignoring DoF), bigger sensor means bigger lenses generally (give or take some consideration for mount distance for wider angle lenses). I'm really curious if Nikon's mirrorless will be as rumoured and have a smaller sensor than existing market players.
<a class="bbc_url" href="http://snowporing.deviantart.com/">dA</a> Canon 7D2, 7D, 5D2, 600D, 450D, 300D IR modified, 1D, EF-S 10-18, 15-85, EF 35/2, 85/1.8, 135/2, 70-300L, 100-400L, MP-E65, Zeiss 2/50, Sigma 150 macro, 120-300/2.8, Samyang 8mm fisheye, Olympus E-P1, Panasonic 20/1.7, Sony HX9V, Fuji X100.
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