I had the Irix for more than 30 days until one of the electrical contacts remained recessed (broken spring or rough surface in it's guiding). Basically you're right, if a lens is "working" for 30 days, it's reasonable to believe it will stay this way for longer. But we're talking about exotic lenses: I don't see myself "working" with a lens probe for 30 days in a row. I'm talking about real working hours on an imaginary counter. And yes, during the time I own it it can happen that I drop it occasionally - the repair problem will remain existing.
I'm not saying it's impossible that everything goes smooth, but it's a longer wait and if something goes wrong during export or European customs gives parcels from China a sharper look, it's me as client who has to pay the bill. On the other side: In Laowa lenses technically there's no electronics or contacts or this sort of things involved. It's purely mechanics and optics on most Laowa lenses. Except - yes - this lens probe. LEDs and a cheap USB port (so here one will experience some kind of wear) to feed power to them. No battery compartment and the DiY solution with a rubber band and a powerbank. The seals also have to work well...
And please think also about the length of that lens. Chris did a cool thing, using an adapter between camera mount and lens mount, so there's a chance that an "accident" will kill first the lens/ adapter mount but not immediately the camera mount, too. My guess would be the tube bends first. And suddenly you can look around the corner... He's also right about the problem with an OVF or LiveView screen on a bright day - so this lens is screaming for a MILC. No problem as these cameras exist, but for our fellow DSLR users?
I'm not saying it's impossible that everything goes smooth, but it's a longer wait and if something goes wrong during export or European customs gives parcels from China a sharper look, it's me as client who has to pay the bill. On the other side: In Laowa lenses technically there's no electronics or contacts or this sort of things involved. It's purely mechanics and optics on most Laowa lenses. Except - yes - this lens probe. LEDs and a cheap USB port (so here one will experience some kind of wear) to feed power to them. No battery compartment and the DiY solution with a rubber band and a powerbank. The seals also have to work well...
And please think also about the length of that lens. Chris did a cool thing, using an adapter between camera mount and lens mount, so there's a chance that an "accident" will kill first the lens/ adapter mount but not immediately the camera mount, too. My guess would be the tube bends first. And suddenly you can look around the corner... He's also right about the problem with an OVF or LiveView screen on a bright day - so this lens is screaming for a MILC. No problem as these cameras exist, but for our fellow DSLR users?