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Full Version: The Pentax FF K1 DSLR is out: Ephotozine Review!
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   If anyone hasn't got any extreme objections, I'm alive and shooting now!

 

   However, I'm probably a dead market in ten years, so why should I worry? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  PS. If DSLRs will die in ten/fifteen years do you see Photozone doing the same?

 

 90%+ lens reviews are for DSLRs!

Quote: PS. If DSLRs will die in ten/fifteen years do you see Photozone doing the same?

 

 90%+ lens reviews are for DSLRs!
 

DSLR lenses can have a second life in front of a lot of mirrorless systems...  Wink so the tests will be a treasure in a couple of years.

Guest

JoJu, by advising me to ignore you, you just want your claims unchallenged Wink

 

Klaus:

I'm sick of the "DSLRs are dying" mantra; they were supposed to be long dead - and guess what... 3:1 in their favor.

Despite all those "collapsed firewalls" you're talking about, the MILCs can only gain ground slowly, very slowly. I just can't believe your "X will happen, and after that..." because I've seen such a promise over and over again. I'm not particularly gullible.

 

Things changed since 2013 - namely, MILCs aren't growing anymore. What you're doing is called confirmation bias Wink - and mathematically incorrect, as you're assuming a constant growth for MILCs - when, as I said, they aren't growing anymore.

The MILCs are a long way even to just reach DSLR levels; but to completely replace them? That would take a while.

 

And talking about some distant future is a mistake, in this case. Sure, Ricoh Imaging should plan for that eventuality (and I believe they'll enter the large sensor MILC market, at some point). But, as of now (mid-term planning), the DSLR market is much more lucrative for them.

Think about it: breaking into 10% on the DSLR market is roughly equivalent - as volume - to fighting for leadership in the MILC market. Planning for the future is all nice and good, but they can't starve themselves until that future happens; they need money, they need to sell. They need a product line which would work now (and in the immediate future), which would bring money for further development/R&D.

That product line is the K-mount.

Quote:Pentax invested fairly heavily into a shrinking (DSLR-) market - a market they do not own.

I don't think that a western company would dare to do so from a financial perspective.

Of course, Japanese companies are a little bit different (tell me - I'm working for one (in IT)).
 

Different in which way? Stubbornness beyond reason?
Quote:Pentax doesn't own any market, so what are their choices? To close shop? Is that really better than moving forward?

Ricoh Imaging is doing very well on the 360o market but Theta alone can't sustain their ambitions. OTOH, the 645 and the K-1 are regarded as successful products .

 

Reality check:

- Pentax' best chance was with their existing customer base

- we know as a fact that they were right to make the K-1

- the MILC market is shrinking as well

- the DSLR market is still about 3x as large as the MILC one
 

IMO Pentax's best chance was to start anew with mirrorless years ago, when the only descent mirrorless system was MFT.

If they had ditched their DSLR line to start from scratch like Fuji did, I bet they would be in a much better position than they are today.

Of course they would have had to develop adapters for their existing lenses, similarly to what Sony did.

All in all it would have been a much smarter move given Pentax's history of compact lenses and body. It would have made much more sense with mirrorless technology and they would be uniquely positioned. Think of the pancake designs they could have released. Excepting for a few lenses, none of the manufacturers offer this today.
Quote:Different in which way? Stubbornness beyond reason?
 

Japanese companies are like tankers. Changing course takes forever because consensus means everything.

Guest

The stubbornness in making products that people want, instead of deciding we should all jump to the next thing?

Guest

Quote:IMO Pentax's best chance was to start anew with mirrorless years ago, when the only descent mirrorless system was MFT.

If they had ditched their DSLR line to start from scratch like Fuji did, I bet they would be in a much better position than they are today.

Of course they would have had to develop adapters for their existing lenses, similarly to what Sony did.

All in all it would have been a much smarter move given Pentax's history of compact lenses and body. It would have made much more sense with mirrorless technology and they would be uniquely positioned. Think of the pancake designs they could have released. Excepting for a few lenses, none of the manufacturers offer this today.
 

If, if, if.

But, is Fujifilm in a much better position than Pentax? I'm not talking about hype - of which they have plenty. Yet Pentax used to beat Fujifilm on the home market. With the Q.

 

And of course, it wouldn't be "like Fuji did", because Fujifilm didn't had a DSLR line to begin with: they made a few cameras, using the Nikon mount (and bodies, as a base).

Pentax has much more to lose by abandoning their users; and if they gain as little as Fujifilm did...

 

Last but not least, the best they could've done - which is not realistic, given that they were under Hoya for so long - would be a leading position on the MILC market (which is something Fuji can't manage). Please read what I said about that, few posts above.

Quote: 

And talking about some distant future is a mistake, in this case. Sure, Ricoh Imaging should plan for that eventuality (and I believe they'll enter the large sensor MILC market, at some point). But, as of now (mid-term planning), the DSLR market is much more lucrative for them.

Think about it: breaking into 10% on the DSLR market is roughly equivalent - as volume - to fighting for leadership in the MILC market. Planning for the future is all nice and good, but they can't starve themselves until that future happens; they need money, they need to sell. They need a product line which would work now (and in the immediate future), which would bring money for further development/R&D.

That product line is the K-mount.
 

Take Sony as an example. At some stage their A-mount sales were higher than Pentax.

Yet, they hit a ceiling ... and drew the consequences (which is contradicting my statement about Japanese companies but Sony is  a bit different due to their strong international structure).

So they were in a very similar situation. Which company is more successful today ?

 

Profits in manufacturing are highly dependent on the economies of scale. Which explains why they are cooperating with Tamron.

 

At the end of the day it just doesn't matter. Be happy. Enjoy your camera. As Dave mentioned - the end is near but it's not here yet. A 10 year horizon means probably something like 2-3 gear cycles for enthusiasts. So what ? :-)
Ah, the next review will be for Pentax ... that is unless Markus is faster ;-)

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